7 Reasons Why Microsoft is DOOMED!

Posted by: Rea Maor In: Microsoft and Windows - Sunday, September 2nd, 2007

Not this year, not next year… but soon – almost certainly by the next decade.

#1. Their business model is a dead-end. – Back when Microsoft first started business in 1980, software as a commodity was still a fuzzy concept. Computers, themselves, were flying off the shelves, and of course you bought game cartridges for game consoles, but what little computer software was being sold in the early 1980’s was worth a few dollars at the most. And then came “Micro-soft” – a BASIC interpreter on a floppy disk in a zip-lock plastic baggy! But somehow, it caught on.

Now, in 2007, the concept of software as a commodity is rapidly wearing off again. Today, it’s all about the service and maintenance – something that Microsoft isn’t prepared to deal with.

#2. They flunk at Web 2.0. – Another shift in the technology market is the much-hyped web app. When you can get more and more of your programs to download from a server and run in a web browser, your whole operating system – as far as what needs to be installed on your computer goes – can be a life-support system for a web browser. You can even get a full operating system to run in your browser! Meanwhile, the biggest stake they have ever had in the Internet user-space is Internet Explorer.

#3. They’re running out of friends. – First off, they’ve been brought up on multiple anti-trust charges in both the United States and Europe, plus been the subject of 130 lawsuits besides. Now consider that IBM, their former friend, now values Linux above Microsoft. And then there’s Sun, Apple, Google, and Oracle, who are flat-out competitors to Microsoft while favoring at least open source, if not Linux proper. Even Adobe is starting to look like a competitor with Microsoft, with nearly a one-to-one mapping of what Adobe and Microsoft each offer.

#4. They only have a couple of cash cows to work with. – Yes, it’s easy to look good when you consider their dominance on the desktop and office programs – but that’s their two products that they stay afloat on is Windows and Office. What about the other ventures of Microsoft? Is MSN taking over share from Google and Yahoo? Did the Zune beat the iPod? How many of you bought Microsoft Surface? Web servers? Nope, Apache rules that roost. OK, so what about the XBox? Yes! The XBox is selling well… at a loss.

At this point, it is becoming apparent that Microsoft had better cling to that operating system and office suite, because every time they step into another market, they get their head handed to them.

#5. People are hating on Vista. – We didn’t even see this many people mad about Windows ME.

#6. Their stock isn’t rising any more. – This is not to say “this week”, but rather over the last seven years. This chart shows a clear picture. You see the stock value climbing steadily until right at the year 2000 – then it fell gradually and has puttered along at a level rate ever since. Microsoft was once the most profitable stock you could trade, but with a seven year slump, that magic spell seems to be irrevocably broken.

#7. PC makers are starting to turn their backs on Microsoft. – Sure, small-time markets have offered alternatives to Microsoft, but when a giant PC seller like Dell starts selling Ubuntu machines, that’s another big sign. HP has followed suit.

Five months ago, noted tech industry guru Paul Graham declared Microsoft dead. People laughed and even I was skeptical, but now that we see the further developments that have happened since that time, it may turn out that Paul Graham has the last laugh, yet.

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82 Responses to “7 Reasons Why Microsoft is DOOMED!”

  1. Michael UncleFucker Says:

    You are a freaking idiot. “apache rules the roost” my as. Read the netcraft survey you linked to you moron:

    The open source Apache has been the leading web server software since the March 1996 Netcraft Web Server Survey. In November 2005, Apache was found on 71 percent of web sites, putting it more than 50 percentage points ahead of Microsoft IIS (20.2 percent). At the time, Apache’s market share advantage seemed insurmountable. But less than two years later, Microsoft has narrowed that 50 percent gap to 16.7 percent. The margin is even tighter in active sites, where Apache leads Microsoft by just 12.2 percent

  2. Michael UncleFucker Says:

    read your own link, you moron.

    The open source Apache has been the leading web server software since the March 1996 Netcraft Web Server Survey. In November 2005, Apache was found on 71 percent of web sites, putting it more than 50 percentage points ahead of Microsoft IIS (20.2 percent). At the time, Apache’s market share advantage seemed insurmountable. But less than two years later, Microsoft has narrowed that 50 percent gap to 16.7 percent. The margin is even tighter in active sites, where Apache leads Microsoft by just 12.2 percent

  3. Michael UncleFucker Says:

    The open source Apache has been the leading web server software since the March 1996 Netcraft Web Server Survey. In November 2005, Apache was found on 71 percent of web sites, putting it more than 50 percentage points ahead of Microsoft IIS (20.2 percent). At the time, Apache’s market share advantage seemed insurmountable. But less than two years later, Microsoft has narrowed that 50 percent gap to 16.7 percent. The margin is even tighter in active sites, where Apache leads Microsoft by just 12.2 percent


  4. More Thoughts on Rea Maor's Says:

    […] Yesterday I wrote a post called Rea Maor doesn’t get it – 7 Reasons Why Microsoft is not Doomed. It was simply a debunking piece for Rea Maor’s absurd article on 7 Reasons Why Microsoft is DOOMED! […]

  5. The Technology Free Press » Blog Archive » Rea Maor’s ‘7 Reasons Why Microsoft is Doomed!’ Says:

    […] I read Israeli blogger Rea Maor’s ”7 Reasons Why Microsoft is DOOMED!” I wondered what planet he’s been living on in recent years. I was tempted to refute […]

  6. drx1 Says:

    Well one thing not mentioned in the original article… is MS Office 07 is horrible. Its not even compatible with Office ’03. If MS were a little smarter they’d have a least made the previous version natively compatible with the new XML format.

    Vista is slow .. maybe buggy… maybe has 5 different versions, but it mostly works most of the time, which is mostly what MS customer want. We were getting a trickle of docx, pptx, etc… coming in… but it seems the trickle is getting faster and users are getting upset.

    Maybe MS gives free downgrades?

    and the MS Media center is a joke.

    Yeah, I dont see them dying anytime soon, but they may fall hard in the next 5 years. People are starting to realize they dont NEED MS.

  7. Jas Says:

    Same here! And I’ve been telling people this since 1995!!! Why are they still here??

  8. PJ at Ferodynamics Says:

    Yes, Bill has more important things to do, like how to save the world from poverty.


    Linux is not necessarily the kaput-Microsoft solution and/or outcome.

  9. 7 Reasons why Microsoft is far from Doomed « Squash Says:

    […] Jump to Comments I hate responding to crappy, sensationalist blog pieces like ‘7 Reasons why Microsoft is DOOMED‘ but seeing as though I’m hoping to finally write up my thoughts from my recent […]

  10. Folletto Malefico Says:

    > “You can even get a full operating system to run in your browser!”

    Please, stop this disinformation. Those softwares (like eyeos.org) AREN’T operating systems, and adding ‘full’ before it doesn’t make the situation better.

    They just copy in some ways the GUI of an OS, but they forget to be a web application, so that GUI is plain wrong. So, they aren’t Web-OS, and they aren’t good at anything.

    A GUI doesn’t make an OS.

  11. Mark Evans Says:

    Judging by the title, ambitious thesis and the number of comments, this is a great example of post bait. 🙂

  12. Embracing Open Sources » 7 reasons of Microsoft’s unavoidable decline Says:

    […] I just stumbled across a very interesting post by Rea Maor where he shows 7 reasons why Microsoft is heading for its doom: […]

  13. ChooChoo Chuck Says:

    It is interesting to me what happens wih Microsoft from a pure business prospective. This is no different than all the other companies that once dominated an industry, only to be dethroned – IBM, K-Mart, GM/Ford/Chrysler…. We saw Microsoft, WalMart and Toyota, Honda & Nissan dethrone them. Microsoft and WalMart are both questionable if they can continue on the growth paths they one had. New companies come along all the time and rise. Apple was once the king of the PC and got crushed, yet they reinvented themselves – can Microsoft?

    Microsoft is certainly getting a wake-up call. How will they respond? Can they produce top quality products on time? It is not too late, but time is certainly running out for them to reinvent themselves.

    Personally, I root for all the US based companies – in all industries. I grow more and more concerned that our future generations have good paying jobs available to them. However, management incentives in US-based concerns tend to be more concerned with their individual wealth acumulation and not what is in the best interest of the company. (Sorry for the diversion).

    Microsoft is capable of hiring the brightest and best – do they have the management to lead anymore? I do not know that answer ( but I really like Vista – have it on both desktop and Notebook! No problems at all for me.)

  14.  — onlinevideoconferenceandcollaboration.com Says:

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  15. Predictions of Microsoft’s Doom | #comments Says:

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  16. Andy Brudtkuhl Says:

    Sounds like another linux fanboy trying to get dugg.

    1. Microsoft has a cutting edge horizontal business model ~ unlike the companies you claim it to be competing with.

    2. Microsoft invented AJAX (before it was AJAX) and had the first Web 2.0 applications (Web Outlook).

    3. They’ve plenty of friends. You can’t just point out their *enemies* and make an outrageous claim.

    4. At least they have cash cows. Oh, and if you were unaware (or didn’t do your research, which is obvious) Microsoft’s IIS and server platform has a GROWING market share where Apache as a DECREASING market share. I’m no mathematician but how is that domination?

    5. People also love Vista, like myself.

    6. What tech company that has been around since 2000 has not seen a decrease in value?

    7. Manufacturers aren’t *turning their back* they are simply providing alternative options to their customers. I would love to see some comparative analysis out of Dell showing the discrepancies of PC’s purchased with Vista vs Ubuntu.

    You linux fanboys are worse than Apple’s

  17. maxconfus Says:

    I just don’t see this end of MS stuff especially since all they need to do is add an ad-blocker to IE and there goes Google’s stock price.

  18. Celestis Says:

    First of all, do you know that the business models of all companies CHANGE over time? Microsoft’s business model is not the same as it was in the 80’s

    Second of all, Surface is currently being marketed to restaurants and hotels and similar customers, not to consumers. That will come later.

    What you missed most of all was that even Apple uses Microsoft as a major marketing point, in the positive way too, even though Apple slams Microsoft in their ads. One of Apple’s main marketing points for their new macs is that you can run Windows on them. Furthermore, on Apples home page for the Macs is a box that advertises Microsoft Office for Macs.

    – Celestis

    p.s., please don’t say that Apple favors Open Source. The irony hurts my head. Apple is the direct opposite with their exclusiveness and purism. The reason why there are many more applications that are developed for Windows is due to the fact that Apple does not do a good job in providing code for outside developers. Hell, Apple doesn’t even let you install Mac OS X on a PC…

  19. Suave Says:

    I don’t know why I bothered reading this bs after the first line was incorrect. Microsoft started in 1975, and their first BASIC was on punched tape. Without Microsoft, Tandy and IBM, there never would have been a PC revolution. Which of these 3 companies has survived the best? Tandy is now pushing cell phones, IBM is still Big Blue for Big Business; but MS software controls the microprocessors of the world.

    Vista, as always, is bloatware. True. But not because of bad code. Any MS developer would write circles around me. There stuff is always bloated because of the kitchen sink. I just wish for once they would fix the bugs in the last release, before moving on. One thing MS has always been good at is changing directions quickly. They have recently started what they call “MQ”, milestone quailty tests. All code must be up to snuff before anything new can be added. Hopefully this will help.

  20. links for 2007-09-05 « packet filter Says:

    […] 7 Reasons Why Microsoft is DOOMED! | Geeks and Technology – Linux Windows Unix system and Making mon… Not this year, not next year… but soon – almost certainly by the next decade. (tags: microsoft business) […]

  21. Scott Barnes Says:

    Damn you’re right… i’ll hand in my resignation tommorow as this post hits every nail on the head.. i expect the 70,000+ fellow employees who continue to grow the company double digits every year will likely follow…

    The sleeping giant (re:5yrs of head down bum up working) has only just awoken and you’re stating it’s got no energy in the tank? It’s a bit premature to call the final score when we haven’t even walked onto the court?

    Scott Barnes
    Developer Evangelist

  22. Johannes Hansen Says:

    You are a funny guy… I wonder if you realize this? :mrgreen:

  23. drx1 Says:

    Suave… IBM may have ‘invited the computer’, however I think it is Apple who invented the personal computer (PC) with its Apple // (and of course its predecessor, which I wouldnt call a PC, the Apple I)…

    IBM got into the PC biz a bit late, but they were Big Blue – after all and business loved them… for a time. Now they have no PC biz, but are still Big, Blue and very business oriented.

    Anyway, MS definately has its own corporat culture, management and structure to blame. Apple may not be 100% open source, but they do use it a lot these days… even if its not pure Open Source, Apple has changed and adapted and continues to … can MS do the same?

    I would say the latest release of Vista and MS Office ’07 says they can not. Time will tell…

  24. Chas Says:

    Your prophecy will most likely come true given time and pressure (just like the world will end in fire. Yes the sun will expand and cook the earth, eventually) but your assertions are limited, hollow and obviously one-sided.

    1) MS business model is constantly changing. Yes, they have had thier mis-steps but who has not? You think Linux has been perfect? Bah! To read your article you imply open source is making all the right moves. That is laughable. When open source can really make money (not just a few exceptions here and there) then you might have something to talk about.

    2) Flunk Web 2.0? Well if you can get a consensus on what Web 2.0 really means then you might could create a test they could flunk. Tim Berners-Lee, has questioned whether one can use the term in a meaningful way, since many of the technology components of “Web 2.0” have existed since the early days of the Web. However, until then MS’s software as a services strategy and latest development tools may surprise you. Do your research. They have quite a good offering and whose to say Web 2.0 is the right direction after all. That is the greatest asset/liability of this industry, constant change. So time will tell. Not you.

    3) Who has friends in this industry? Do you think Ubuntu is friends with Novell? Isn’t Ubuntu competing against every other LINUX distro? For example, Sun will have its own brand geared to work with their hardware. Until the Linux market consolidates they will all serve to compete against each other, confuse the developer and consumer industries and drive us toward non-standard platforms that will not integrate worth a salt. Ever seen how many different ways the Linux distros have for install packages? It is quite a bit of chaos.

    4) They only have a couple of cash cows? Ha, show me a Linux implementation that has a single cash cow like Windows or Office. Funny how no Linux distors have as much cash on hand as MS.

    5) Agreed. People are hating on Vista. But what do you think is going to happen. Do you really think Dell will stop offering it to consumers and business alike? With a new PC Vista works better than XP in most regards. When SP 1 comes out you will see most of the issues resolved and the adoption will increase as the confidence level increases. Do you really think a consumer Linux disto would not suffer the same fates if it had the install base MS had? You are naive if you think so.

    6) Their stock isn’t rising any more. Whose in the tech industry is? Except those folks who were in the basement in the first place. Do you think Sun or Oracle have made any significant head way or innovation? Think again. Oracle is still trying to hang on to a tired Oracle DB implementation and its tooling is miserable. Sun? They still haven’t recovered from putting the dot in dot com.

    7) PC makers are starting to turn their backs on Microsoft. This is somewhat true but only as a natural course for these guys. They are always searching for new sources of revenue and offering another OS product line could be a way of doing that. But don’t think for a minute they will stop offering MS OS. Not in the next 10-15 years anyway, if they want to stay in business.

  25. I STILL say Microsoft is DOOMED… | Geeks and Technology - Linux Windows Unix system and Making money online Says:

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  27. Captain Reality Says:

    Daniel said:

    “does oracle is doomed? as its selling installable software and not making web app!! does sun? i mean, wtf.”

    Daniel, please stop posting on the internet until you learn to write, you semi-literate embicile.

    Yes, Microsoft is doomed. They’re a company staffed by many clever people that now manages to produce nothing of value to anyone. It must be something to do with their structure; as usual, it’s senior management’s fault. While the usual suspects are still running the company, they’ll go nowhere. They’re living from past creations, and in this industry, you can’t do that forever, no matter how dominant you are.

  28. SneakyWho_am_i Says:

    Count me among those that think that Microsoft is not doomed – although its days holding 95% of the desktop and browser markets are coming to an end. It was unnatural and now natural forces are Coming about to correct the environment. To create a 95% monopoly is a very impressive feat, but it’s uphill – now they’re rolling down :-P.

    Daniel, comment #4.
    1) “software as a service” has nothing to do with LTS or customer service.
    2) As others have pointed out, Oracle and Sun are not limited to making desktop applications. Microsoft is – ergo, Microsoft is the one hurt by Web 2.0.
    3) – 7) I didn’t waste time trying to understand these. A “.” between sentences goes a long way.

    Mike, comment number 6: “Microsoft is the base that everyone else sets their standards against”…. What!? Not in the IT world…. Every improvement I saw in Windows Vista, I saw under Linux first. Consider Internet Explorer, have all the other browser vendors implemented VBScript and ActiveX? Do all the other browsers show off a broken understanding of the W3C DOM? Do all the other browsers misinterpret every single page of valid CSS and javascript you throw at them? I think not. Microsoft may be ahead in SOME areas, but to think that they set standards for Window Managers or Web Browsers would be very silly.

    Jason, comment #28:
    1) “paying for software”… What are you smoking? Who said you can’t pay for free software? That’s just stupid. It’s free as in freedom, bitch! I didn’t read the rest of your points because your first one was such a disgusting display of ignorance.
    Have you never heard of MySQL AB, Sun Microsystems, Red Hat, Canonical…??

    t-intern, #13:
    “Most of my friends are using Live Spaces.” So what? In a survey of thousands of Pidgin IM users, the most popular out of a list of about twenty protocols was ICQ. ICQ? Really? Yeah really. That blew me away – I only know one other person with an ICQ account and she doesn’t use it. These sorts of things are influenced strongly by your school, workplace, geographic region and a huge number of other factors. Concluding that we all use WL Spaces just because everyone around you does would be like moving to Japan and then realising that everybody in the world was Asian.

    Those are just my responses to the Microsoft-basher-bashers. It’s hard to feel good about Microsoft after a day of reading Slashdot. They are suing a GPS company for reading FAT-formatted memory cards today, because supposedly FAT is patented. That’s not cool.

    – Some specific parts of Microsoft Technology are totally excellent. For example that SkyDrive thing is awesome (although I don’t use it as I’m a webmaster)
    – most of my friends use Windows. That’s excellent, I have no problem with that at all. I’m glad they have computers. Windows is reasonably user friendly (it’s not as intimidating as DOS, although not as efficient for a typist) and I am too grown up now to try to talk unconvinced family members into switching to superior operating systems. If you’re on Windows, you should stay there as long as you can because learning to use a new operating system is HARD and the one you switch to will seem unpleasant and poorly designed no matter how awesome it is.
    – I like notepad and windows calculator

    On the other hand:
    – Microsoft’s strong point on the desktop is often said to be its API. Well, frankly I’m a PHP and C++ programmer and I’m not interested in the Windows API at all. I’m quite happy with things like SDL and QT. I wish that Windows had a proper packaging system and repositories, this would make my installers very small (200KB instead of 4MB, for a fact). So, for programmers, Windows is not very nice.
    – Internet Explorer fails at internet. The interface is almost flawless, but the actual browser totally sucks and is an abomination.
    – Windows has security and stability issues, everybody knows that and it’s no big deal as thousands of businesses all around the world use it every day with no major hiccups. Unfortunately some of these issues are there BY DESIGN (Windows update?) and that’s just stupid
    – Support for a particular version of a Linux distribution can last for ten years. That’s ten years of updates, patches, whatever you want to call them. That would be like Microsoft discontinuing Windows 95 in 2007.
    – The latest version of Linux tends to be more advanced than its Windows counterpart now. So, with Linux overtaking, Microsoft is going to have no choice but to start cracking out the patent lawsuits to keep its operating system on top — yes, you can patent things without proving that they will ever actually work, and this is Microsoft’s strategy. Patents are extremely expensive too, so only Microsoft can really afford to purchase them. Software patents are nothing to do with inventing something and all to do with having lots of money.

    Is Microsoft doomed? I sincerely hope not. There is no substitute for Windows right now and that’s a simple fact. Windows still has a lot to offer us, I’d like to see ten more versions. However, I’d like for those versions to have a less than 60% share of the Operating systems market and I think that ten or twenty years from now when Microsoft’s running out of legal clout, this is going to happen.

    Microsoft and Windows are great, but they shouldn’t be everything and fortunately we’re starting to see various forces conspiring to create a sane equilibrium in the areas in which Microsoft dabbles.

  29. Atari Mega STE Says:

    “Is Microsoft doomed? I sincerely hope not. There is no substitute for Windows right now and that’s a simple fact.”

    SneakyWho_am_i, please change pusher.

  30. rhodan Says:

    microsoft products aren’t all that bad. Unfortunately viruses are out on the net and almost all of them are infecting Windows computers.
    that’s my main reason for switching to ubuntu in the first place. No more viruses, no more crashes, no more monthly reinstalls. Too bad my favourite games aren’t running nicely under Linux.

  31. Boo Bahh Says:

    They Charge You For Xbox Live What
    I Can Understand Why But They Charge To Much For What It Is Such
    A Basic Thing.
    Even Tho Its Better Than ps3 Online
    They Could Still Improve XBL So Many More Things That Could Make It Better That I Can Think Of Off The Top Of My Head,

    I Could Go On All Day But Just One
    Thing That Would Be Great Is Competitions Like On MW2 Start With
    A Ton Of Matches And Only Players Who Come 1st Get Through To The Next And So On Untill Theres Just Enough For 1 Last Match And Top 3
    Players Get A Xbox Game Of There Choice And So On

    Come On Microsoft It Top Me Longer To Write That Than It Took Me To Think Of It <<

  32. Dana Says:

    It’s been 4 years since this post… Your time is running out and Microsoft is still doing well no matter how much you want it down. Ha. Ha. Ha.

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